On PacMan and Cotto

I know it's a great week on the gig when they allow me to take a break from the daily trade rumours surrounding Roy Halladay and weigh in on the biggest fight of 2009. Short of them actually sending to Vegas to cover Pacquiao and Cotto live, it's the best assignment a sportswriter and lover of the sweet science could hope for.





I haven't seen every episode of the most recent edtion of HBO's outstanding 24/7 documentary series (it somehow never made it to air in Canada), so I haven't as in tune with the pre-fight buildup as I would like to be. But or months now I've been listening to friends, ex-fighters journalists weigh in on how they think the fight will unfold.


Jason Abelson, founding member of The Fight Network and host of Pound-for-Pound Radio says Pacquiao shreds Cotto, point blank.


Meanwhile, former three-division world champ Felix "Tito" Trinidad says Cotto y su corazon latino will find a way to win.


And what do I think?


I think Pacqiao wins, but at a price.


*Again, a disclaimer. Fight predictions made here are pretty damn reliable, but are neither 100 percent accurate nor legally binding. If you bet based on my predictions but somehow lose, don't go blaming me. Even the World's Greatest makes mistakes. Sometimes.*


Floyd Mayweather supporters might dispute the assertion that Pacquiao is the best fighter in boxing, but there's no doubting that Pac Man's December dismantling of Oscar De La Hoya and springtime destruction of Ricky Hatton make him the hottest boxer in the sport right now. He's improving every time out and packing plenty of power even when he ventures north of 140, and Mayweather's camp has to respect that even if they don't fear it.


HOWEVER, hot does not mean indestructible. 


Shane Mosley was the hottest fighter in boxing in 2001 when the late Vernon Forrest derailed him with a stiff jab and a sick right cross.


In 2008 Cotto, confident and undefeated, was in the same spot -- white hot until Antonio Margarito cooled him off with an 11th-round knockout, breaking Cotto's spirit and, it appears, several facial bones.





But that fight cost Margarito just as much as it did Cotto, because even in winning Margarito displayed weaknesses that Mosley would later exploit -- slow feet, a porous defence and a little too much confidence in his chin. Combine all that with a quick-thinking corner (hey commish, you mind double-checking Margarito's hand wraps?) and it adds up to the worst beating Margarito has ever suffered.


So what's that got to do with Pacquiao?


Everything.


Pacqiao should win this fight. I'm thinking late TKO (because Cotto cuts) or a fairly close decision. Cotto's stronger and naturally the bigger fighter, but Pacquiao is just too fast and busy and tenacious to lose.


But of everyone Pacquiao has faced since moving up from lightweight, Cotto is the closest to the top of his game. He's experienced but not old, and a better technician than most observers realize. With his jab and his body attack he could give Pacquiao fits, exposing flaws that others might attack later.


OK, not "others." 


Other.


Floyd Mayweather.


He may not Kanye West the post-fight interview like Sugar Shane did in September, but you best believe he'll be somewhere in that arena, taking notes, making plans, and moving us all a little closer to the biggest fight the sport can offer.


As long as Pacquiao does his part.