On PacMan and Cotto

I know it's a great week on the gig when they allow me to take a break from the daily trade rumours surrounding Roy Halladay and weigh in on the biggest fight of 2009. Short of them actually sending to Vegas to cover Pacquiao and Cotto live, it's the best assignment a sportswriter and lover of the sweet science could hope for.





I haven't seen every episode of the most recent edtion of HBO's outstanding 24/7 documentary series (it somehow never made it to air in Canada), so I haven't as in tune with the pre-fight buildup as I would like to be. But or months now I've been listening to friends, ex-fighters journalists weigh in on how they think the fight will unfold.


Jason Abelson, founding member of The Fight Network and host of Pound-for-Pound Radio says Pacquiao shreds Cotto, point blank.


Meanwhile, former three-division world champ Felix "Tito" Trinidad says Cotto y su corazon latino will find a way to win.


And what do I think?


I think Pacqiao wins, but at a price.


*Again, a disclaimer. Fight predictions made here are pretty damn reliable, but are neither 100 percent accurate nor legally binding. If you bet based on my predictions but somehow lose, don't go blaming me. Even the World's Greatest makes mistakes. Sometimes.*


Floyd Mayweather supporters might dispute the assertion that Pacquiao is the best fighter in boxing, but there's no doubting that Pac Man's December dismantling of Oscar De La Hoya and springtime destruction of Ricky Hatton make him the hottest boxer in the sport right now. He's improving every time out and packing plenty of power even when he ventures north of 140, and Mayweather's camp has to respect that even if they don't fear it.


HOWEVER, hot does not mean indestructible. 


Shane Mosley was the hottest fighter in boxing in 2001 when the late Vernon Forrest derailed him with a stiff jab and a sick right cross.


In 2008 Cotto, confident and undefeated, was in the same spot -- white hot until Antonio Margarito cooled him off with an 11th-round knockout, breaking Cotto's spirit and, it appears, several facial bones.





But that fight cost Margarito just as much as it did Cotto, because even in winning Margarito displayed weaknesses that Mosley would later exploit -- slow feet, a porous defence and a little too much confidence in his chin. Combine all that with a quick-thinking corner (hey commish, you mind double-checking Margarito's hand wraps?) and it adds up to the worst beating Margarito has ever suffered.


So what's that got to do with Pacquiao?


Everything.


Pacqiao should win this fight. I'm thinking late TKO (because Cotto cuts) or a fairly close decision. Cotto's stronger and naturally the bigger fighter, but Pacquiao is just too fast and busy and tenacious to lose.


But of everyone Pacquiao has faced since moving up from lightweight, Cotto is the closest to the top of his game. He's experienced but not old, and a better technician than most observers realize. With his jab and his body attack he could give Pacquiao fits, exposing flaws that others might attack later.


OK, not "others." 


Other.


Floyd Mayweather.


He may not Kanye West the post-fight interview like Sugar Shane did in September, but you best believe he'll be somewhere in that arena, taking notes, making plans, and moving us all a little closer to the biggest fight the sport can offer.


As long as Pacquiao does his part.

Super Six Saturday!

Woke up this morning with a simple plan:


To jumpstart my metabolism and get back on the road to ripped after two weeks of relative sloth. Part A of the plan consisted of a trip to the gym, and Part B included a couple of hours at Toronto's Salsa Church.


Last time I was there they said the back of my head was so pretty they took a picture of it.



Also pictured, Stacy "SMB" White, the coolest Canadian Hoosier in all of Indiana.


After that, back to the Penthouse to watch the opening rounds of the Super Six World Boxing Classic.


Like I said yesterday, it's a big deal. And like I said yesterday, even at the height of Maple Leaf Madness I managed to get a non-local boxing story into the newspaper.


But sometime this morning, just before tuning into "Thrilla in Manila," (outstanding...we will discuss here soon) I scrolled through the guide and learned that the football team representing my school, the finest academic institution in the Big Ten would kick off against Magic Johnson's alma mater at noon.





Just that quickly my Super Saturday Sweat-a-Thon turned into a Super Saturday of Sloth. 


Ah well.


As long as it's super. It'll be even more super once my Cats smash the Spartans.
Kickoff is in five minutes.


Settling into the couch right about.......


Now.

Diamond Crooks Takin Over

DONTE'S DRAMA

I don't know how closely you guys follow news out of Buffalo, but Bills' free safety Donte Whitner's home was robbed this weekend, and the thieves, who were probably "friends" of Whitner's, took $400,000 worth of jewelery.

Sonny Cheeba? Geechy Suede? Y'all got my ice? I spent a lotta Lucini on that!

Whitner's business spokesperson, Patrice Horton, won't specify what pieces of jewelery were stolen, but does confirm reports that the total value of what's missing is $400k.

Damn.

I feel bad for Whitner, but would feel worse if he had lost $400k in the stock market, or in real estate, or in bad investments with Bernie Madoff. If those things happened I'd know that he was at least trying to make the money he works so hard for ($2.7 mil per season) work for him. But to take the equivalent of 15 percent of you pre tax income and sink it into jewelry is unthinkable to me.

Now, I'm not judging too harshly. It's not like I've never spent money foolishly. I've got Camp Lo's second album, so I know a little about bad buys.

Somebody pulled a heist, but they just don't know who. I wonder how we do heistin' jewels, how we do!

I could see dropping that kinda of money on an artifact that would will increase in value, but I suspect those thieves didn't steal $400,000 worth of antique jewelery. And, really, what is the resale market like on medallions that spell DONTE in diamond-dipped platinum?

It's pretty soft, I'm guessing.

But what really rattles me about this whole affair is that Whitner's "business spokesperson" is the person who confirms the initial report of the theft. So Whitner has the foresight to hire (what we can only assume are) professionals to help handle his "business," but lacks the vision to store his jewelry stash somewhere other than a safe deposit box?

Makes no sense.

I'd like to think this robbery will teach athletes across the country to guard their goodies more carefully, recent... history...tells us that athletes have been and will continue to be targets for robbers. So if Whitner didn't learn from those before him to keep his treasure chest someplace secure, we can't assume anyone will learn a thing from what happened to him.

We can only hope, then shake our heads when it happens again.

Spring Training Chapter 2... The Missing Link

FIRST THINGS FIRST:

We've been roach-free for 48 hours and counting.

Apparently an exterminator came by the condo this morning while we were at the ballpark just to make sure none of our friend's roach cousins were still skulking around, but I like to think my thorough thumping of our boy on Sunday night sent a clear message to the complex's roach community:

Don't eff with unit 1332.

Yeah, my six-legged neighbours know better than to come back up in here.

Anyway, it took me exactly two days on the Blue Jay beat to learn my college friend Raheem Covington is the "lookalike missing link" between me and Blue Jays pitching prospect Fabio Castro.

First, let me explain.

Each of us has a lookalike somewhere in the world. I've got quite a few -- everyone from Tommy Davidson to Vinnie from Naughty By Nature to the pretty boy backup singer from RnB one-hit wonder band, Ideal (that's him, back row on our left).



A missing link adds one degree of separation to the lookalike phenomenon, because he looks like two people who don't really resemble each other.

For example, rapper-turned-actor Will Smith looks like NBA championship magnet Robert Horry, who in turn looks like recently retired NBA center Alonzo Mourning, even though Smith and Mourning don't look all that similar.

See?

This guy:

Parents just don't understand...

This guy looks like this guy:

Horry, six championship rings not pictured.

Who looks like this guy:

Zo... but he don't look like Will

Got it?

Okay, so during my senior year at The Harvard of the Midwest I met Raheem Covington.

I had retired from the ball team by then and was working in the athletic department, and he was a freshman cornerback who looked JUST like me, except with a goatee (back then I was clean-shaven, like dude from Ideal). A little taller than me, but not by much. Similar athletic build, same skin tone, cheekbones, eyes and hair texture. More than one freshman chick I had never met walked up to me and started convos, thinking I was him.

Anyway, I always liked Raheem. Thought he was a handsome dude.

And this morning I swore he walked past me in Blue Jays' locker room. I knew Raheem had played a couple of years in the CFL, but had no clue he had remained in Canada and switched to baseball.

Turns out he hadn't.

It was a lookalike. Fabio Castro, a southpaw relief pitcher looking to jumpstart his career with the Jays this season.

But Castro doesn't look like me. I mean, he's a handsome dude, too, but besides being 5-foot-7 and brown skinned we don't look all that much alike. Raheem and I could pass for brothers, while Castro at best is a distant cousin on my dad's side.

See?

This handsome guy:

World's Greatest Sportswriter

Looks like this guy:

He loves Winnipeg despite the mosquitos...

Who in turn resembles this guy:

But he doesn't quite look like The World's Greatest

Haven't spoken to Castro yet. Not sure he speaks English. But even if he doesn't, estoy aprendiendo mas y mas espanol cada dia, so even if he knows no English, pienso que podemos hacer una entrevista en espanol.

Either way, by week's end, I'll have the story behind the story on the guy at the other end of the lookalike chain.

LOOKING AHEAD

All A-Roid, all the time.

Yankees visit Dunedin to open their preseason against the Jays, and apparently former MVP, admitted (under duress) steroid user and all-around stand-up guy Alex Rodriguez will play.

A month ago this game figured to be pretty mundane, but l'affaire d'A-Rod gives it a spicy subplot.

What a way to start spring training.

Can't wait.

Stay Tuned.

A-Fraud? Ster-Rod?

Saturday morning Sports Illustrated broke some (really not very) shocking news:

Before Yankees third baseman and Barry Bonds heir apparent Alex Rodriquez did Madonna, he did steroids.

*This is not A-Rod but clearly he was into this kind of thing.

In fact, according to the story he did at least two of them, testing positive in 2003 for both testosterone and primobolan.

News of the positive test taints the MVP award he won that season, and threatens to damage the legacy of the guy many people hoped would knock (accused) steroid user Barry Bonds from atop the all-time home run list.

The scandal only promises to widen and deepen as more facts about the test are revealed.

...

Yawn.

...

Seriously, am I supposed to care that A-Rod and 103 other guys -- probably more when you include the guys who beat the test -- were flagged as steroid users during an era when MLB didn't punish drug use? Given the laxity of MLB's drug policy back then I'm surprised more guys didn't test positive.

Four years ago Jose Canseco's first book outed Mark McGwire's steroid use, just a few weeks before Big Mac himself pleaded the fifth before congress rather than confess that a steady diet of fastballs and andro wasn't all that contributed to his astronomical home run totals.

A year later Mark Fainaru-Wada and Lance Williams let us in on another poorly-kept secret:

Barry Bonds had a little chemical help in transforming from this





to this.




Then last year came the Mitchell Report, which confirmed our steroid suspicions about Roger Clemens 88 other less accomplished MLBers.

So how many more times are we supposed to act surprised, insulted and disillusioned when we learn some baseball star took steroids during an era when MLB took no concrete steps to prevent doping?

Look, we live in uncertain times. None of us knows how much when the price of gas will skyrocket for good, or whether the local newspaper has enough cash to publish tomorrow's edition, or how many hours before Michael Phelps embarrasses himself in public again.

But of these three things, I'm certain.

Republicans have artificial hearts.

Porn stars have fake boobs.

And if you don't deter athletes with severe punishment -- fines, suspensions, the singing Obama Brats -- for doping, then some of them dope.

Have any of you looked at a track and field record book?

Notice how most the world records in the throwing events and women's sprints are from the 1980s, when athletes weren't tested for drugs outside major competitions. They could take whatever they wanted while training (and plenty of them did) knowing they only needed to pee clean a few times a year. And honestly, if you know months in advance the doping control guys will be there, it's not longer a drug test -- it's an I.Q. test. Either way, aside from major meets athletes had little to fear.

And in the late 1990s and early 2000s, neither did players in Major League Baseball.

I'm not saying everybody playing between 1998 and 2004 was dirty. I'm not even saying most players were. I'm just saying that after Game of Shadows, the Mitchell Report, and this latest news about A-Rod, we shouldn't have to act like any new steroid revelations shock or offend us.

I'm finished acting surprised to learn about any baseball star's past doping, and if MLB didn't care enough about steroids to enforce its own ban, then I refuse to feel bad for MLB as old drug tests expose steroid era stars as a generation of cheaters.

Another Bad Week....

.... For athletes and money. 

Don't misunderstand me, news from the newspaper industry -- whose money troubles have inspired several entries on this blog -- still stinks,  especially if you live in Boston or the Twin Cities. But at this point nobody expects newspapers to have cash, so reports of layoffs, buyouts and bankruptcies no longer surprise us.

Somehow, though we expect millionaire athletes to learn from the examples of those who squandered fortunes before them, even though a few times each year someone reminds us just how tough it can be to retire rich.

This week we have two examples.

First came news that the non-profit headed by former Olympic heptathlete Jackie Joyner-Kersee is bleeding money, yet somehow managed to pay nearly half a million dollars in "consulting fees" to a for-profit outfit headed by her husband, Bob.

Predictably, the IRS is interested in what the Joyner-Kersees have been doing with all those tax-deductible donations that help fund their charity. And though the story makes clear that the government has been scrutinizing the Joyner-Kersees' tax returns (both charitable and private) for, Bob continues to claim nothing shady is happening, and that all the problems stem from simple ignorance of tax procedure.

Uh, ok.

But what about Floyd (No Money?) Mayweather?

Surely he and his advisers know better than than burn through the mountain of money he earned in the ring, right? Or at least they know to take care of the tax man before blowing seven figures shopping for jewelery..... right?

I mean, it's not like he's Evander Holyfield or something.

I didn't used to think so, but now it looks like The Pretty Boy and The Real Deal have more in common than catchy nicknames and Olympic Bronze medals.

According to this report from Boxingscene.com, the Pretty Boy owes the IRS more than $6 million. This from a man who grossed nearly $40 million in 2007 alone?

Now, I don't know how reliable this story is, partly because no mainstream media (I guess that would include me) have picked it up, and mainly because it lacks any type of attribution. 

Uncle Sam wants to shake the Pretty Boy down?

According to whom?

Did you talk to his lawyer?

His manager?

Did you speak to the IRS, or even a "source close to the story"?

We don't know because the story doesn't say.

But we do know this:

Though Mayweather claims to have become a hip-hop mogul since retiring last year, his rhyme skills wouldn't even pay my grocery bill.

Ouch.

A looming tax lein would explain why the  Pretty Boy announced last month he'd consider unretiring for a Pay Per View superfight with Manny Pacquiao.

It's a shame in a lot of ways.

That our generation's most dominant fighter might be broke.

That he may have to go back to work when he might genuinely want to stay retired.

That he might risk damaging his legacy and brittle hands to keep the taxman happy.

But his tax trouble keeps him out of the recording studio, we all win.

One Take, One Link, One Endorsement

ONE TAKE -- OSCAR-PAC MAN POST MORTEM

So the final numbers are in from the De la Hoya/Pacquiao pay per view, and it was a stunning success. Looks like both the Golden Boy and his promotional company made enough to survive the impending depression.

Wait, no, it was a huge disappointment. Looks like Golden Boy Promotions (and the sport of boxing) are headed down the toilet, along with the American auto industry, the newspaper business and the governor of Illinois.

I'm with neither ESPN nor the L.A. Times on this one. Instead, I'm with Mos Def because "I find it distressing -- there's never no in between...."

Let's put this in perspective.

Is the 1.25 million pay per view buys Oscar and Pac Man logged last weekend impressive next to the 2.4 million Oscar and Floyd Mayweather put up in May 2007?

Not exactly.

But it's a huge number considering 1) Pacquiao wasn't exactly a celebrity to most Americans before this fight, and probably still isn't one now, and 2) everybody's broke.

The folks at the L.A. Times -- owned by the newly bankrupt Tribune Company -- know as well as anyone how little money people to spend these days. Given the depth of the economic doo doo we're in my hat's off to anyone who can sell a 1.25 million of anything, especially when that "anything" is a sport that even top fighters say is dying.

ONE LINK -- NASTY, DISGUSTING, GRAPHIC

So why is boxing dying?

Most folks think its because most members of that coveted 18-35 white male demographic would rather watch stuff like the link I'm about to show you. Basically, it depicts an unusually tall and rake-thin UFC fighter going shin-to-shin with an opponent and emerging with a badly broken leg.

Like, shattered shinbone.

Like he'll never walk normally again broken.

This is Joe Theismannesque, and then some.

You've been warned. This link is graphic. Don't click if you've just eaten.

But if you love disgusting, catastrophic sports injuries, then click here.

ONE ENDORSEMENT -- BLACK MILK

These days it seems everything I love is dying.

A medium (newspapers).

A sport (boxing).

An art form (hip-hop).

They say they come in threes, and as much as I'd hate to see hip hop die, I'll pull the plug and dig the grave myself if I hear too many more Auto Tuners. Seriously, who really wants to sound like T-Pain?

Anyway, dying don't mean dead, and there still are some talented folks keeping hip hop alive, and that leads me to this week's endorsement:

Black Milk.

A Detroit-based DJ/Producer/MC and heir apparent to the late J-Dilla, and he's making great music these days. Stumbled across some of his tracks online a couple months back and now he's in heavy rotation on my iPod.

My favourite so far:

A welcome antidote to the spreading T-Painification of hip hop, and as long as he's making music the art form will survive.

Not sure what he can do about boxing and daily papers though...

* Photo of Pac Man smashing Oscar originally appeared here.

Pacquiao Proves Me Wrong

Didn't I warn you guys that my predictions weren't legally binding?

I mean, even the World's Greatest Sportswriter is entitled to the occasional wrong prediction, and in manhandling Oscar de la Hoya Saturday night Manny Pacquiao rendered me only half right.

If you guys can think back about 45 hours you'll remember me pointing out that Pacquiao would press his speed advantage, land a bunch of clean shots and win plenty of rounds over the Golden Boy.

And didn't he do that?

But I also predicted Oscar would fight back.

And he didn't.

More accurately, he couldn't. 

In the bout's immediate aftermath several boxing observers said de la Hoya looked old as he absorbed stinging blows from Pacquiao while offering little in return.

But it goes beyond just looking old. At 35, after 16 years in the pro game, Oscar is old. Too old, anyway, to fight a guy as fast as Pacquiao, who doesn't appear to have lost much speed as he packed on pounds to become a welterweight.

Pacquiao, meanwhile, looked comfortable in his new weight class, and his thrashing of De La Hoya suggests he'll similarly steamroll any other smallish (Oscar entered the ring at just 147 pounds), slowish welterweight he faces.

So what's next for these two?

FOR OSCAR

I've heard several experts predict -- heck, damn near beg  for -- his retirement, which would seem reasonable after such a lopsided loss. Even without the Pacquiao fight he's generated more money than any fighter ever, and earned more money for himself than anyone (excluding Michael Vick) could ever spend. With his legacy set (Olympic Gold, six-time world champ, new pay scale for PPV headliners) and his health intact he has little reason to continue fighting.

Besides pride.

It's a powerful motivator. Powerful enough to propel him into the ring one last time next spring or fall, but not against a top flight fighter in his prime. I'm thinking Oscar takes a vacation, then signs to fight a third or fourth-tier welterweight with a decent pedigree -- someone like former Olympian Terrance Cauthen, former "Contender" Alfonzo Gomez, or even Ricky Hatton's brother Matthew. The fight headlines an expensive pay per view card, Oscar pounds out a lacklustre 10-round decision, then walks away a winner.

MEANWHILE, MANNY SHOULD SEEK OUT

1. Ricky Hatton.

He was in Vegas all week, looking to lure Saturday's winner into a showdown next year.

Think he changed his mind after seeing Pacquiao's performance? Two days have passed and I still haven't heard Hatton call out Pac Man the way he did Floyd a couple years back.

*Checks Google*

Still haven't.

You think Hatton doesn't remember what happened last time he faced an allegedly smaller fighter coming off a big win over De La Hoya?

No reason to think a Pacquiao fight would end much differently.

So it's on promoter Bob Arum to make this fight happen so Pacquiao can flatten Hatton and set up a big money bout with....

2. Floyd Mayweather

You think a $20 million payday is enough to coax the Pretty Boy out of retirement?

Maybe. Turns the trick for sure if you couple it with the the adulation that will follow Pac Man's victory over Hatton. When Floyd realizes the boxing world really has moved on without him, and that there's much more money in fighting than in bankrolling bad music acts, he'll un-retire to fight Pacquiao.

And he'll win.

Sorry, Manny, but Floyd is way too skilled for you. He'll make you eight figures, though, so make the fight.

MANNY SHOULD AVOID

Antonio Margarito and Paul WIlliams.

These plus-sized welterweights present BIG problems for a guy like Pacquiao. If you don't believe me, ask Miguel Cotto how 11 rounds of relentless pressure from Margarito felt. Or ask Margarito how he dealt with Williams' freakish reach and volume punching.

Both men are bad matchups for the Pac Man, and since neither is Oscar de la Hoya, neither brings enough money to the bout to justify the risk.

Fight Night

Cutting it real close with this one, and when this fight's done a few of you will probably accuse me of watching it first then posting a "prediction" afterward.

Yes, I plan to call it that accurately.

The fight in question is, or course, Oscar De La Hoya vs. Manny Pacquiao, and its scheduled to start in a little less than four hours.



Big money bout between the two biggest names remaining in the sport, now that Floyd Mayweather is enjoying his first retirement, and an intriguing matchup between a very good bigger fighter in Oscar, and a great small one in Pacquiao.

Now, before I break this fight down and offer my prediction I should warn you that I'm damn good at this. I'm the guy who picked Sugar Shane over Oscar (twice), Jermain Taylor over Bernard Hopkins (twice) and Hopkins over Antonio Tarver, even though Tarver was the bigger guy and allegedly the harder puncher.

Nevertheless, anyone who uses my prediction as the sole basis for betting on this fight is a damn fool. Even I'm wrong sometimes. I didn't have Joe Calzaghe beating Hopkins, or Margarito breaking Miguel Cotto's will. I know Kelly Pavlik would win the rematch with Jermain Taylor, but I admit I didn't pick him to win the first time.

Again, let me emphasize that I make a bad fight prediction about as frequently Arturo Gatti slips a jab, but if I'm wrong about tonight's fight I don't need regretful gamblers complaining to me Sunday that they went broke following my advice.

Of course, I won't be wrong, but it's fair to issue the disclaimer.

Now that we've set this fight up, lets break it down.

PACQUIAO'S POSITIVES

1. Speed. He'll be the fastest guy De La Hoya has faced since Mayweather, and it's not like Oscar had an easy time neutralizing the Pretty Boy's quickness. And unlike Floyd, Pacquiao punches in volume. Oscar will have a hard time not getting hit.

2. Speed. It's such a big plus I had to list it twice. If you've seen the training footage on HBO's 24/7 then you've seen how dramatic Pacquiao's edge in hand and footspeed is. Yesterday Pacquiao weighed in at 142 pounds, five below the welterweight limit, making clear that he plans to exploit his speed advantage all night.

3. Pop. Not saying he can stop Oscar with one punch or even TKO him late, but even at a smaller size his punches will sting if they land clean. And plenty of them will.

OSCAR'S POSITIVES

1. Size. He's a legit welterweight/supermiddleweight who figures to gain at least 13 pounds between last night's weigh in and tonight's fight. Factor in Pacquiao, who probably won't weigh mich more than the 142 he scaled Friday, and we've got a catchweight bout.

2. The Stick. If Oscar remembers to throw it Pacquiao's in trouble. He needs to be on Oscar's chest to do damage. Period.

3. The Hook. If Oscar lands it Pacquiao goes to sleep.

THE QUESTIONS

How does Pacquiao's trainer, Freddie Roach, affect this fight? Roach trained Oscar for his May 2007 los to Mayweather, and may have gleaned the Golden Boy's weaknesses and imparted some insiders' wisdom to Pacqiao.

Will Oscar gas out? He has faded down the stretch so often it's become part of his legacy. Will Pacquiao's work rate wear him down tonight?

Can Pacquiao hurt Oscar? If he can't he better have plan B ready, because if Oscar will stalk him unless he has a reason to use caution.

THE OUTCOME

De La Hoya by late stoppage.

He's just too big.

For an example, think of Sugar Ray Robinson's 13th round knockout loss against light heavyweight champ Joey Maxim. Or more recently, look how giant welterweight Antonio Margarito ground down Miguel Cotto before winning in the 11th.

No question that Pacqiao is the faster, flashier fighter here. Pound for pound he's well beyond Oscar at thsi point in their careers.

But he doesn't hard enouogh to hurt a full-sized welterweight.

Look for Oscar to press his size advantage, lean on Pacquiao and wear him out, then attack late as Pacquiao tires.

It won't be easy. Pacquiao will land plenty of punches and win a lot of rounds, but Oscar will in the fight.

Especially if he lands that left hook.