Yes, I plan to call it that accurately.
The fight in question is, or course, Oscar De La Hoya vs. Manny Pacquiao, and its scheduled to start in a little less than four hours.
Big money bout between the two biggest names remaining in the sport, now that Floyd Mayweather is enjoying his first retirement, and an intriguing matchup between a very good bigger fighter in Oscar, and a great small one in Pacquiao.
Now, before I break this fight down and offer my prediction I should warn you that I'm damn good at this. I'm the guy who picked Sugar Shane over Oscar (twice), Jermain Taylor over Bernard Hopkins (twice) and Hopkins over Antonio Tarver, even though Tarver was the bigger guy and allegedly the harder puncher.
Nevertheless, anyone who uses my prediction as the sole basis for betting on this fight is a damn fool. Even I'm wrong sometimes. I didn't have Joe Calzaghe beating Hopkins, or Margarito breaking Miguel Cotto's will. I know Kelly Pavlik would win the rematch with Jermain Taylor, but I admit I didn't pick him to win the first time.
Again, let me emphasize that I make a bad fight prediction about as frequently Arturo Gatti slips a jab, but if I'm wrong about tonight's fight I don't need regretful gamblers complaining to me Sunday that they went broke following my advice.
Of course, I won't be wrong, but it's fair to issue the disclaimer.
Now that we've set this fight up, lets break it down.
PACQUIAO'S POSITIVES
1. Speed. He'll be the fastest guy De La Hoya has faced since Mayweather, and it's not like Oscar had an easy time neutralizing the Pretty Boy's quickness. And unlike Floyd, Pacquiao punches in volume. Oscar will have a hard time not getting hit.
2. Speed. It's such a big plus I had to list it twice. If you've seen the training footage on HBO's 24/7 then you've seen how dramatic Pacquiao's edge in hand and footspeed is. Yesterday Pacquiao weighed in at 142 pounds, five below the welterweight limit, making clear that he plans to exploit his speed advantage all night.
3. Pop. Not saying he can stop Oscar with one punch or even TKO him late, but even at a smaller size his punches will sting if they land clean. And plenty of them will.
OSCAR'S POSITIVES
1. Size. He's a legit welterweight/supermiddleweight who figures to gain at least 13 pounds between last night's weigh in and tonight's fight. Factor in Pacquiao, who probably won't weigh mich more than the 142 he scaled Friday, and we've got a catchweight bout.
2. The Stick. If Oscar remembers to throw it Pacquiao's in trouble. He needs to be on Oscar's chest to do damage. Period.
3. The Hook. If Oscar lands it Pacquiao goes to sleep.
THE QUESTIONS
How does Pacquiao's trainer, Freddie Roach, affect this fight? Roach trained Oscar for his May 2007 los to Mayweather, and may have gleaned the Golden Boy's weaknesses and imparted some insiders' wisdom to Pacqiao.
Will Oscar gas out? He has faded down the stretch so often it's become part of his legacy. Will Pacquiao's work rate wear him down tonight?
Can Pacquiao hurt Oscar? If he can't he better have plan B ready, because if Oscar will stalk him unless he has a reason to use caution.
Will Oscar gas out? He has faded down the stretch so often it's become part of his legacy. Will Pacquiao's work rate wear him down tonight?
Can Pacquiao hurt Oscar? If he can't he better have plan B ready, because if Oscar will stalk him unless he has a reason to use caution.
THE OUTCOME
De La Hoya by late stoppage.
He's just too big.
For an example, think of Sugar Ray Robinson's 13th round knockout loss against light heavyweight champ Joey Maxim. Or more recently, look how giant welterweight Antonio Margarito ground down Miguel Cotto before winning in the 11th.
No question that Pacqiao is the faster, flashier fighter here. Pound for pound he's well beyond Oscar at thsi point in their careers.
But he doesn't hard enouogh to hurt a full-sized welterweight.
Look for Oscar to press his size advantage, lean on Pacquiao and wear him out, then attack late as Pacquiao tires.
It won't be easy. Pacquiao will land plenty of punches and win a lot of rounds, but Oscar will in the fight.
Especially if he lands that left hook.
He's just too big.
For an example, think of Sugar Ray Robinson's 13th round knockout loss against light heavyweight champ Joey Maxim. Or more recently, look how giant welterweight Antonio Margarito ground down Miguel Cotto before winning in the 11th.
No question that Pacqiao is the faster, flashier fighter here. Pound for pound he's well beyond Oscar at thsi point in their careers.
But he doesn't hard enouogh to hurt a full-sized welterweight.
Look for Oscar to press his size advantage, lean on Pacquiao and wear him out, then attack late as Pacquiao tires.
It won't be easy. Pacquiao will land plenty of punches and win a lot of rounds, but Oscar will in the fight.
Especially if he lands that left hook.
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